Ricardo Pepi To Sign With VFL Wolfsburg
This move will bring the young striker to the Bundesliga, but at what price?
After months of speculation it appears that Ricardo Pepi will be joining Vfl Wolfsburg of the German Bundesliga. The same club that fellow America(s) John Brooks, Ulysses Llanez, and Bryang Kayo play for. The same Bundesliga side that from 1998-2003 were coached by Wolfgang Wolf.
Today Wolfsburg’s coach is Florian Kohfeldt. Name sound familiar? Kohfeldt previously coached Josh Sargent at Bremen. But before we start drawing comparative conclusions, let’s first take a step back.
In today’s article we’ll discuss the current situation at Wolfsburg, Ricard Pepi’s strengths & weaknesses, and then try to draw a conclusion on how Pepi would fit in with the wolves.
Back in September I did an episode on Ricardo Pepi and discussed his play-style, and how the U.S. has found it’s true #9. A couple weeks later I profiled potential landing places of Pepi. Today with all of that knowledge aside, we know that Ricardo is en-route to join the Bundesliga in January. We also know that Pepi this past season exploded on to the scene in Major League Soccer scoring 13 goals in 31 matches. But to just focus on Pepi’s goal to appearance ratio would be naive because so much else happened for the FC Dallas prospect.
Committing to represent the U.S. over Mexico, and scoring a brace against Jamaica in Pepi’s debut certainly made ‘El Tren’s’ wheels set in motion this past fall, but it looks like Ricardo is finally outbound for Europe. So Wolfsburg…let’s first start with their current coach, form, and what type situation Ricardo will be inheriting upon arrival.
Wolfsburg was a Champions League caliber team last season. Occupying the 4th and final spot for Champions League qualification in the Bundesliga, Wolfsburg would finish last in their group this season in the UCL as Timothy Weah’s, Lile and Brenden Aaranson’s, Red Bull Salzburg would finish first & second in ‘group G’ respectively. Similar to their woeful performances in Champions League this season, Wolfsburg isn’t doing much better in Bundesliga play.
Currently in 13th place at the time of the this episode, and having lost 7 straight matches in all competitions, it is safe to say that Wolfsburg is struggling. So this guy, Florian Kohfeldt. Well let’s even take one more step back before Florian was hired because this season actually started with Mark Van Bommel at the helm. Van Bommel didn’t last very long with the Wolves. It’s safe to say that his debut with the wolves didn’t instill much confidence when during a DFB-Pokal first round match he used six substitutes instead of the permitted five in a 3–1 extra-time win resulting in disqualification. Mark Van Bommel would last only until late October when eight winless games in all competitions led to his dismissal.
Then came in Florian Kohfeldt. Following his abysmal final year with Werder Bremen last season, Kohfeldt had been jobless since May 2021. Since his hiring on the 26th of October 2021 he has only a 27.27% win percentage which is worse than his time at Werder Bremen. So let’s take a step back here. I know that everyone is panicking because Josh Sargent didn’t perform well under Florian but in all reality, the real pressure is on Kohfeldt. When Wolfsburg hired him they were taking a major risk. So far the risk is not panning out.
Now despite their poor form recently it is only fair to point out the club’s continued injury problems, which will ultimately could help Pepi see the field. Back in July, Lukas Nmecha transferred to Wolfsburg from Manchester City on a permanent loan. Nmecha (prior to his injury) was truly the only bright spot on the season for the wolves, having scored 6 goals in 15 Bundesliga matches this season. With Nmecha out, Wolfsburg do have Wout Weghorst who scored 20 Bundesliga goals last season, but rumor has it that Weghorst will be on the move to England. It is clear that the wolves plan on bringing Pepi in to team up with Nmecha in the future.
With an aging Weghorst about to transfer out following this season, I would be excited to see the dual play between Nmecha & Pepi. Nmecha is more of a second striker with the ability to play out on the wing. Lukas Nmecha is known for his dribbling abilities, and pace when running at defenders. What is exciting is that I believe Nmecha would be the perfect supporting striker to feed the ball to Ricardo Pepi.
Unlike Nmecha, Pepi is more of a true #9 and finisher around the box. Pepi has an extremely high soccer-IQ. In terms of positioning Ricardo always seems to be in the right place at the right time. But as we know that’s only half the battle, and when Pepi finds himself in front of goal, he scores most chances that he gets. The 18 year old has a knack for making runs at the right time. This could be a match made in heaven for Pepi, but before Nmecha is healthy, he will need to first play with Wouth Weghorst.
Weghorst on the other hand is known as a very good poacher. He is utilized more in a 'target man' type role due to his ability to hold up the play and his heading ability. So what does this mean for Pepi when he arrives at Wolfsburg?
It means that Ricardo will most likely be utilized as a second striker. In Wolfsburg’s most recent match vs. Bayern Munich the wolves played a 3-4-2-1 formation. With Renato Steffen as the left-forward and Luca Waldschmidt as the right-forward. Interestingly enough both players are naturally left-footed, and outside of this attacking duo, Wolfsburg is very limited off of the bench. Pepi will come in and support in more of a second striker position to Weghorst. I think it is very possible that we could see more of a traditional 3-5-2 under Kohfeldt with the arrival of Pepi, but I worry that this formation will be too static with Weghorst & Pepi at the top. This in my opinion is the only reason to truly worry about this move for Ricardo.
The last thing I would like to see is a struggling Wolfsburg, under a seemingly overmatched Florian Kohfeldt, throw Pepi to the dogs in a scenario where he has to adjust to the Bundesliga out of position. Or for Florian to write Pepi off right away if he has a tough time integrating around Weghorst. For all of you who believe Pepi won’t play over Weghorst, that’s probably true, but I’d have to imagine that Wolfsburg wouldn’t be shelling out this much cash to have Ricardo ride the bench…especially in a dire situation when the team is searching for a difference maker.
Long-term I don’t see this move as a problem. Wolfsburg have been recruiting Pepi well before Lukas Nmecha came down with an injury. To me this means the obviously see him in their future plans with Wouth Weghorst moving out after the season. But in the time being, could Pepi still find success?
The answer is…yes. One of the most impressive stats of Ricardo Pepi from this past season is that he converted 13 goals in only 31 scoring opportunities. None of his 13 goals for FC Dallas came outside of the box, and he had zero penalty-kick goals. What does this mean?
It means that when Pepi gets an opportunity to score he usually does. Not to throw Sargent under the bus but unlike Josh Sargent who has performed under the expected goals threshold his entire career, Pepi has smashed this figure with FC Dallas in 2021.
Before you say well you are comparing MLS vs. the Bundesliga/Premier League…remember that their job is to score goals, and Pepi has done that while Sargent has not.
In closing I am in favor of this move. When you take time to sit-back and break it down, it’s apparent that Wolfsburg are planning their future around Pepi. It also doesn’t hurt that he will be joining three other Americans at the club which typically makes for a smoother transition. A transition that I believe will already be smooth given Pepi’s level of confidence.
I am also in favor of this move due to timing surrounding the World Cup. I’ve seen tons of narrative stating that this is the worst possible situation for the USMNT, and Gregg Berhalter.
I completely disagree.
Ricardo Pepi will be joining this club in January. He is going to be given every opportunity to succeed with the wolves. Even if he struggles for the remainder of this year, he still has the entire summer, and fall to get in form. Remember how fluid things are with a young team, and with players like Pepi. It wasn’t until late August that he even decided to play for the U.S.
So for anyone out there still doubting the kid, give him some time. He will prove you wrong.
Thank you so much for tuning into State Of Soccer Weekly.
I will see you all next week…and until next time…
GO USMNT!!